New data reveals severe blow to regime’s main source of revenue as exports collapse and floating oil reserves shrink
Iran’s oil exports fell to their lowest level in at least six years in May, according to shipping data and assessments by energy analysts, dealing a major blow to one of the regime’s most important sources of revenue. The sharp decline comes in the wake of a U.S.-enforced naval blockade that has significantly restricted the regime’s ability to export crude oil and condensates.
The United States began implementing the blockade on April 13, targeting vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports. The measure has dramatically curtailed Iranian oil shipments at a time when regional energy markets are already facing supply pressures caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and reduced exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates.
According to a report by Reuters, data from energy analytics firm Vortexa shows that Iran exported an average of just 209,000 barrels of crude oil and condensates per day in May. This represents a dramatic decline from 1.34 million barrels per day in April and nearly 1.9 million barrels per day in March.
Vortexa noted that the May figure marks Iran’s lowest export level since late 2019 and early 2020, when U.S. President Donald Trump pursued his “maximum pressure” campaign against the Iranian regime during his first term in office.
Iranian officials in New York did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment regarding the figures.
Claire Jungman, an analyst at Vortexa, attributed the sharp decline to a combination of factors.
“It appears that the primary drivers of this reduction are disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. naval blockade targeting ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, and the widespread reluctance of shipowners, operators, insurers, and commercial counterparties to expose their vessels and crews to the current security environment,” she said.
Similar findings were reported by another energy intelligence firm, Kpler. Although Kpler estimated Iran’s May exports slightly higher at approximately 260,000 barrels per day, the company likewise concluded that exports had fallen to their lowest level in six years.
Floating Oil Stocks Continue to Decline
Kpler’s data also indicates that Iran’s floating oil storage volumes are decreasing as more tankers have succeeded in unloading their cargoes in China.
The company estimates that Iran currently holds around 147 million barrels of crude oil and condensates in floating storage. Of this amount, approximately 67 million barrels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
These figures represent a significant reduction from late April, when Iran’s floating oil reserves were estimated at roughly 190 million barrels.
Iman Nasseri of energy consultancy FGE offered a somewhat lower estimate, suggesting that around 55 million barrels of Iranian crude are currently trapped aboard tankers unable to move beyond the blockade line.
Analysts warn that the situation could become increasingly severe if restrictions remain in place. Homayoun Falakshahi of Kpler stated that if the blockade continues for another two months, the Iranian regime could effectively face a shortage of export-ready oil available for shipment to China, its largest oil customer.
Kpler’s data shows that Iranian crude imports into China fell to approximately 1.1 million barrels per day in May, the lowest level recorded since January 2025.
Growing Economic Pressure on the Regime
The collapse in oil exports represents a serious challenge for Tehran, whose economy remains heavily dependent on hydrocarbon revenues despite years of sanctions and efforts to diversify income sources. Reduced export volumes not only diminish the regime’s access to hard currency but also increase pressure on state finances at a time when Iran continues to face deep economic difficulties, including high inflation, budget deficits, currency instability, and growing public dissatisfaction.
As the blockade limits the regime’s ability to market its oil and analysts warn of dwindling exportable supplies, the coming months may place additional strain on Tehran’s economic and political position both domestically and internationally.
