Home Economy Iran – Economic Growth Below Zero, Liquidity Growth Above 2651 Trillion Tomans

Iran – Economic Growth Below Zero, Liquidity Growth Above 2651 Trillion Tomans

Iran regime’s economic fall
Iran regime’s economic fall

But the regime’s officials are facing most of the time with big challenges because they do not know which statistics they should refer to be able to run the country. As an example, no one knows what the real number of the GDP is because the real number will show the miserable economic situation of the regime. Nevertheless, they have announced a number, which was agreed to by all the officials.

The regime’s statistic center announced the GDP (oil included) in 2019 at -7 percent, and the Central Bank gave the number -6.5 percent.

Since this regime was founded, the economic growth has fallen deeply because of the suppression, the Iran-Iraq war, and the regime’s ambitions in the Middle East and of course its nuclear and missile projects.

From the 1980s until now, the three years of negative GDP has been unprecedented. While President Hassan Rouhani has started his tenure in 2013, they mocked the previous government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that the economic growth was -5 percent and the inflation more than 30 percent, which was unheard in the past 30 years. But the situation of the Rouhani’s government is even much worse, and this shows that there is no difference between anyone who leads this country, and they are all the same.

In the two periods that Rouhani has been the President of this regime, the average GDP growth has reached 0.6 percent, and this is one of the lowest economic growths around the world.

The Mashregh news website by presenting a table on the economic growth of the regime since 2013, wrote: “According to the statistics of the IMF, from 2013 which the eleventh government has started, until 2019 the economic growth in Iran is as the table below shows:

If after the JCPOA, the regime would not be able to open the oil valve to the global customers, we should not see the economic growth of 12.5 percent in 2016 and it would be not clear how deep this rank would fall. While at the time of Ahmadinejad, according to the IMF, the economic growth was about 2.27 percent, and Iran was ranked 135th in the world.

Now we should look at the regime’s “excellent” records of its economy, and how much liquidity is it facing. The state-run news agency Mehr wrote on 30 June 2020:

“The Central Bank announced the amount of the liquidity until the end of May this year at 2651 trillion Tomans, with a growth of 7.3 percent compared to the same time period of last year.” Naturally such an amount of liquidity means inflation of more than 30 percent. And with the rising of the dollar price, the future of the liquidity and the inflation in Iran is unclear.

The ISNA news agency on 6 June reflected the claims of the Central Bank about the amount of the liquidity and wrote: “Don’t fear, because the increasing of 100 trillion tomans of liquidity in a day and the expectation that the liquidity will increase three times in a near future is nothing that you should be concerned about. Instead, you should attend to its growth rate which is less than the decades before.” And by giving some statistics it claimed that the situation is getting better decade after decade:

“The highest liquidity in Iran with 57 percent belonged to 1974 and then to 2006 with 39 percent and in 1995 with 38 percent. So, at first, the most intensive liquidity growth belongs to the 70s, and at the next level it belongs to the 2000s and 90s and finally, 2014 is placed.” But then it said, “The current growth in liquidity (31%) is by no means favorable to the bank.”

Then the Tasnim news agency criticized this situation and wrote: “The liquidity engine is still working, and the government has no specific and meaningful idea other than printing money to meet budget needs.” (Tasnim, 15 June 2020)

 

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