Iran could face a critical shortage of electricity by the summer of 2025, with an estimated imbalance of 26,000 megawatts if no urgent measures are taken, warns Ali Nikbakht, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Iranian Power Plants Association.
This shortfall represents approximately one-third of the country’s electricity demand and poses a significant threat to the stability of the national grid.
In a statement made on Saturday, September 14, Nikbakht highlighted the urgent need for government action to prevent this crisis. He proposed that to stabilize the situation, the government must invest between $900 million and $1 billion in energy infrastructure improvements.
These funds, he explained, would be used to boost electricity production by 2,700 megawatts in thermal power plants and an additional 1,500 to 2,000 megawatts in gas power plants. Despite these efforts, the electricity shortfall is still projected to remain at 20,000 megawatts for 2025.
Nikbakht further pointed out that the country had already been struggling with a power deficit of 19,000 to 20,000 megawatts this year, largely due to the government’s failure to take preventive measures before peak consumption periods. As a result, Iran experienced significant electricity shortages over the summer.
Data from the Ministry of Energy reveals that the country faced an electricity deficit of 11,000 megawatts during the summer of 2022, a figure that rose to 17,000 megawatts in 2023. Energy authorities have since warned that next year’s deficit could surpass 24,000 megawatts, requiring an estimated $25 to $27 billion in investments to address the shortfall.
Despite these alarming figures, Nikbakht did not elaborate on why he recommended relying on thermal power plants—both gas and steam-powered—to mitigate the electricity deficit, given their low efficiency and the country’s ongoing struggle with gas shortages. The inefficiency of these plants and the gas supply crisis further complicate the situation.
The projected 26,000 megawatt shortfall for 2025 is equivalent to twice the total electricity production of neighboring countries, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkmenistan, which are major electricity exporters in the region.
Nikbakht also noted that around 3,000 megawatts of Iran’s power generation capacity remained inactive during the summer. He linked this to the government’s substantial debt of 90 trillion tomans to private power plant owners, a figure that has quadrupled since the current government took office.
Due to this debt, plant owners have been unable to secure funds for timely maintenance and repairs, exacerbating the country’s energy crisis. The situation worsened after the sharp rise in exchange rates in 2019.
From 2019 to 2021, the income of power plants nearly doubled, but this was offset by skyrocketing costs driven by inflation and currency depreciation. During this period, the exchange rate increased sixfold, while inflation surged between 300% and 400%.
The administration of the regime’s former president Ebrahim Raisi had set a target of adding more than 6,000 megawatts of new power generation capacity last year. However, only a third of this goal was achieved, and most of the new plants that were built were low-efficiency gas and thermal facilities.
With Iran’s energy infrastructure straining under rising demand and outdated technology, significant investments and reforms are crucial to prevent a looming power crisis in the coming years.
