Oxford Economics analysts say that they predict the sanctions will send Iran’s economy into recession, with a squeeze of 3.7% occurring next year, which would be Iran’s “worst performance in six years”.
These economic sanctions, lifted under the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal agreed during President Barack Obama’s administration, are being reimposed following Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the deal in May. Trump, a firm critic of the deal since the campaign trail, said that the deal did not prevent Iran from accessing nuclear weapons.
He said: “As we continue applying maximum economic pressure on the Iranian regime, I remain open to reaching a more comprehensive deal that addresses the full range of the regime’s malign activities, including its ballistic missile program and its support for terrorism.”
The sanctions on Iran’s oil industry, which is an integral part of the Iranian economy, come into effect on November 4.
The Oxford Economics report said that it was very unlikely that any other world power would help Iran find a way to export their oil, which means that the ramifications would be worse than previously thought.
The report’s co-authors Mohamed Bardastani and Maya Senussi, who are senior economists with Oxford Economics, wrote: “While deteriorating economic conditions will be painful for most Iranians, a real domestic political challenge to the current regime and a genuine change in its foreign policy (one of the main objectives of re-instating US sanctions) are nevertheless unlikely as both “reformers and conservatives” are united in defying the sanctions.”
While it is certainly true that the Iranian Regime will not change its behaviour in order to avoid US sanctions, the pair has made two mistakes there. First, there’s no such thing as reformers in the Regime. All mullahs who claim to champion democracy, human rights, and global integration, as no-one is allowed to challenge the Supreme Leader’s narrative. Those who publically criticise him are wolves in sheep’s’ clothing, who are only there to help “normalise” the regime in the West.
Second, there is a domestic opposition that is a serious threat to the Iranian Regime. The Iranian Resistance is popular among the people of Iran, even organising the current uprising, and the global community, routinely working with other governments to support and protect the Iranian people.