Iran’s regime officials are sounding alarms about a security crisis and the looming possibility of collapse. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s decision to cleanse the government of those not aligned with his policies has sparked a fierce internal factional dispute and an unprecedented scandal. In response to former President Hassan Rouhani’s request for an explanation for his disqualification, Hossein Shariatmadari, Khamenei’s representative at Kayhan (the official mouthpiece of the regime’s supreme leader), wrote:
“Rouhani questioned, ‘Why haven’t you disclosed the reasons for my disqualification?’ It is important to note that the Guardian Council is legally prohibited from divulging reasons, but candidates are free to request and publish them.”
Shariatmadari continued, stating, “In response to his disqualification, Rouhani has presented numerous records in a statement. In reply, it should be said: ‘As Imam Khomeini stated, the current condition of the people is the index of their criterion.'”
Khamenei’s faction has raised concerns about Rouhani’s trial and dual citizenship. Mohammad Hassan Ghadiri Abyaneh, a member of the regime’s principlist faction and a rival to the so-called regime’s reformist faction, of which Rouhani claims membership, stated:
“With the end of Rouhani’s presence in the Assembly of Experts and the conclusion of his judicial immunity, the grounds for his trial will be prepared. The next stage after his trial is the defrocking of Rouhani due to his betrayals to the system. Security agencies should announce whether Hassan Rouhani holds dual citizenship or not.”
The regime’s state-run website, Etelaat Online, noted, “Rouhani’s disqualification was predetermined from his registration, and the outcome was known. The moderator of a live TV program strongly reacted to Hassan Rouhani’s entry into the Assembly of Experts election and urged the Guardian Council to fulfill its main duty accurately when facing him. This has not occurred in the last forty years.”
On the opposing side, Rasoul Montajabnia, a regime cleric and member of the reformist faction, warned that Rouhani’s disqualification would carry heavy costs for the regime. Cleric Haj Ali Akbari, the Friday prayer leader of Tehran, referred to the critical conditions of the regime and the frustration of its supporters, stating that the regime’s enemies aim to disrupt its security:
“You see how our enemies are acting against the elections; they want to damage our participation by disheartening the people through psychological warfare. They aim to question the competition, disturb security, and challenge the integrity of the elections.”
Ahmad Zeidabadi, a regime expert and member of the reformist faction, cautioned the regime’s leadership about the dire situation in the current crises and upcoming elections, stating that if this situation persists, it represents an extremely perilous downward trajectory. Many individuals across various fields have been sounding the alarm for quite some time.
Sociologist and political analyst Ahmad Bokharai echoed similar concerns, warning that the country is on a perilous path. He outlined four options, emphasizing the impossibility of continuing the existing process, which includes beatings, threats, prisons, and executions. He stated that within the next one to one and a half years, the society can no longer endure this path, leading to social collapse.
Regarding people’s participation in the election, Bokharai predicted it would be below 40%, signifying a crisis of legitimacy. He concluded, “If this continues, in one or one and a half years, conditions in the environment, people’s livelihoods, political issues, international and domestic politics, and parliamentary election participation statistics will be drastically different.”
