How Tehran’s deceptive peace rhetoric hides the collapse of its regional strategy
In a deceptive move, the Iranian regime — the main instigator of the war that began on October 7 — announced that it supports “any initiative that would stop the war.” The same regime that has inflicted decades of suffering on the people of Gaza and the West Bank issued a statement claiming that it has “always supported any initiative that ensures ending the genocidal war, the withdrawal of occupying forces, the delivery of humanitarian aid, the release of Palestinian prisoners, and the restoration of the fundamental rights of the Palestinians.”
No government in the world has betrayed and harmed the Palestinian people more than this regime. The question is how we arrived at this point — and whether the regime has gained anything from the war it helped ignite on October 7.
A Turning Point in the Middle East
October 7, 2023, was the day that changed the balance of power in the Middle East. The deadly Hamas attack on Israel did not just alter regional equations; it became one of the greatest strategic miscalculations in the history of Iran’s ruling system — a mistake that may well mark the beginning of its end.
For more than four decades, the regime’s survival depended on exporting terrorism. But suddenly, it found that the very pillars of its so-called “axis of resistance” were collapsing one by one. Billions of dollars of political, military, and financial investments vanished in less than a year. This proverb fits perfectly: “One must bear the consequences of one’s own doing.”
A Proxy Empire Without Return
Over the past forty years, Tehran has poured vast national resources into regional proxy groups — Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria.
According to international estimates, the regime has provided Hezbollah alone with up to $700 million annually, while the total expenditures on its regional network have reached billions over the last two decades.
The declared goal of this strategy was to create “strategic depth” and “regional deterrence.” Yet, the events after October 7 and Israel’s overwhelming response proved that such deterrence was nothing but a dangerous illusion.
From Deterrence to Disintegration
Following Hamas’s attack, Israel launched a series of precision strikes across the region, eliminating dozens of senior commanders affiliated with Tehran’s militias.
Logistical networks, missile depots, and supply routes in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon were targeted and destroyed.
Hezbollah — once portrayed as “Khamenei’s regional arm” — suffered severe blows and lost much of its command and coordination capacity. The Houthis came under intense military and political pressure, while Hamas was left isolated and weakened.
The so-called “axis of resistance,” once flaunted as a symbol of deterrence, has turned into a shattered and ineffective structure.
A Strategic and Economic Miscalculation
For Iran’s rulers, October 7 was not a triumph but the gravest miscalculation of their rule.
They imagined that by supporting Hamas’s offensive, they could trap Israel in a prolonged conflict, strengthen their influence in the Islamic world, and extract concessions from the West.
The outcome was the opposite. The war revealed that Iran regime’s regional deterrence was hollow and its military capabilities exaggerated.
As the war spread, Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders were killed, and Iran’s defense systems failed to respond effectively.
Diplomatically, the regime faced isolation. International sanctions were reimposed, the “snapback mechanism” at the UN was activated, and oil exports once again fell under strict scrutiny.
The economy entered another downward spiral, and the regime’s regional legitimacy evaporated.
The Iranian People Pay the Price
Every rial spent on Iran’s proxy wars comes directly from the pockets of its citizens.
Funds that could have built schools, hospitals, and infrastructure were spent on missiles, militias, and destruction abroad.
As a result, Iranians are now enduring unprecedented hardship: currency collapse, soaring inflation, and deepening poverty.
The regime’s policy of “exporting revolution” has effectively turned into the import of poverty.
While the rulers fuel wars in other countries, the Iranian people struggle to afford food, rent, and medicine.
From Bluster to Strategic Void
The collapse of Iran’s proxy network has exposed the emptiness behind the regime’s propaganda of “invincible power.”
The twelve-day war demonstrated that Tehran’s defensive and deterrent structure was weaker than ever. The myth of regional strength disintegrated, and the regime’s image — both at home and abroad — crumbled with it.
The End of a Doctrine
The doctrine of “strategic depth” has effectively ended. Neither in Lebanon, nor Yemen, nor Gaza has Tehran maintained deterrence.
Instead, it faces new waves of political isolation and economic pressure.
Today, Iran’s rulers find themselves unable to protect their proxies or recover the resources invested in them.
Everything they built over four decades has been rendered useless in less than a year.
The Beginning of the End
Through its own miscalculations, the regime has not only lost ground in the region but has also undermined its domestic legitimacy.
Iranians are now asking: Why must we pay for the ambitions of a regime that has deprived us of both prosperity and freedom?
History will remember that the Iranian regime, through its own choices, wrote the first lines of its downfall.
What remains of the “axis of resistance” is an axis of destruction — a landscape of rubble abroad, a poorer Iran, and a generation robbed of its future.
Everything spent in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza has vanished into smoke, but the debt is paid by the Iranian people.
Now, they have the right to reclaim their future — at any cost.
Today, more than ever, resistance against this regime has become a legitimate and urgent necessity.
