Iran’s Regime Faces New Sanctions Over Poor Cooperation with IAEA

On November 18, 2024, AFP reported that the Iranian regime is set to face new sanctions due to its lack of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). At the UN nuclear agency’s meeting, European diplomats, with backing from the United States, introduced a plan to adopt a resolution against Iran. The meeting, scheduled to begin on Wednesday, highlights escalating tensions between Iran and the IAEA.

Rising Tensions Since the Collapse of the Nuclear Deal

Relations between Iran and the IAEA have steadily deteriorated since the collapse of the 2015 nuclear agreement. Brokered during Barack Obama’s presidency, the deal imposed strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, while evidences showed that the deal was not able to prevent the regime from expanding its malign nuclear activities.

Thus, the Trump administration withdrew from the deal in 2018, accompanied by a “maximum pressure” campaign in response to the regime’s hidden activities.

Evidences showed that the regime was enriching uranium to 60% purity, a level just shy of the 90% required for weapons-grade material, making it the only non-nuclear state to achieve such levels. Since then, while Tehran has repeatedly denied pursuing nuclear weapons, international concerns about its rapidly expanding nuclear program continue to grow.

A Confidential Push for Accountability

According to a confidential draft obtained by AFP, Western powers are demanding a comprehensive report from IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi on Iran’s nuclear activities. This report is expected to address Tehran’s cooperation regarding uranium traces discovered at undeclared sites.

Grossi’s recent visit to Iran, which included meetings with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and inspections of key facilities in Natanz and Fordow, was seen as a last-ditch effort to ease diplomatic tensions. However, Kelsey Davenport, Director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, dismissed the visit as “a missed opportunity for Pezeshkian to demonstrate that he is serious about de-escalation.” And added: “Grossi’s visit to Tehran was… too little and too late to stave off a censure from the board.”

“Taking tangible steps to enhance IAEA oversight of Iran’s nuclear program and address the agency’s questions about past undeclared nuclear activities would have quelled speculation that Iran is engaged in illicit nuclear activities,” Davenport said.

Iran’s Mixed Signals and Defiance

During Grossi’s visit, Pezeshkian called for nuclear negotiations free from political pressure, expressing Tehran’s readiness to address ambiguities. Despite these statements, fears of a return to the Trump administration’s hardline policies are clouding diplomatic efforts.

Adding to the tension, Mohammad-Javad Larijani, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, made provocative remarks in an interview with Iranian state television. Referring to the regime’s nuclear capabilities, Larijani claimed, “If the Europeans believe we can develop a nuclear military capability within 48 hours, they are not mistaken. In fact, we can shorten this time to 24 hours. This is our deterrent power.”

Rejecting claims of a deadlock in Iran’s policies, Larijani warned, “Iran’s nuclear capabilities are unstoppable, and any threat will face a decisive response.”

Hassan Ghashghavi, a member of the Iranian parliament, pointed to the regime’s “Strategic Action Plan,” which mandates immediate retaliation if international institutions take adverse actions against Iran. Backed by Khamenei, the law obliges the regime to respond to any perceived violations of its nuclear rights.

Diplomatic Standstill as Vienna Meeting Looms

Ahead of the crucial IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, reports suggest Iran has offered to limit its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity, conditional on the absence of a censure resolution. Confidential IAEA documents indicate Tehran has prepared to cap its stockpile and is open to allowing four additional IAEA inspectors.

However, Western powers, citing Iran’s history of non-compliance, remain unconvinced. Diplomats told Reuters that despite Iran’s offer, a censure resolution is likely to proceed.

Conclusion

As the IAEA meeting approaches, the prospect of new sanctions and heightened scrutiny over Iran’s nuclear activities raises the stakes for diplomacy. Tehran’s defiance, paired with its conditional offers, underscores the complexity of negotiations and the fragile state of international efforts to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions.