John Glaser, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, said: “He’s given strong indications that he’s just not going to recertify it.”
Indeed, Nikki Haley, US ambassador to the United Nations, met with officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to determine how compliant Iran was with the nuclear and to urge the officials to demand access to Iranian military sites.
In response the Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, sent a letter to the UN stating the Iran “is abiding by its duties and responsibilities” with regard to the deal.
He also accused the US of exploiting the issue “for ill-wishing political means.”
The week prior to Hayley’s meeting with the IAEA, she said that Iran must be held responsible for “its missile launchers, support for terrorism, disregard for human rights, and violations of U.N. Security Council resolutions. Iran cannot be allowed to use the nuclear deal to hold the world hostage.”
The Trump administration has certified Iran’s compliance twice so far this year, under US laws that require the State Department to notify Congress of Iranian compliance every 90 days.
The next review will come in October.
Some believe that if the US verifies Iran as noncompliant with the deal, they will risk alienating US allies, as the deal was also signed by Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and the United Nations.
Glaser said: “If we were to leave the deal or deliberately abrogate it, we’d be isolated internationally and we wouldn’t be able to do anything like reapply sanctions that would do any kind of damage on Iran. That’s because the rest of the international community would not sort of play along.”
He continued: “[The other parties] agree that Iran is complying with the deal and agree that the deal should be kept in place because it’s a robust, nonproliferation agreement. It has kind of taken military conflict against Iran because of the nuclear program off the table.”
Indeed, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani threatened to quit the nuclear pact if new US sanctions were introduced.
Thomas Karako, a senior fellow with the International Security Program and director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said: “Iran has already harvested a great many of the benefits of the deal already. “If they are considering a breakout for the purposes of [nuclear] capability, they will probably try to maximize their benefits and minimize the blowback.”
However, the US market is much stronger and more robust than that of Iran and if given the choice, it is likely that these countries would side with the US to continue trade links.