These new sanctions would be more stringent than those lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal, which Trump pulled out of in May, and those sanctions are already tough.
The US withdrawal triggered the return of sanctions against Iran’s purchase of US dollars, gold trade and automotive sector in August and Iran’s oil and shipping sectors and its central bank in November. Trump has vowed to cut those who continue to do business with Iran after November 4 off from the US financial system and his administration is reluctant to issue sanctions waivers to countries purchasing Iran’s oil.
This has already caused many companies (i.e. Total, ENI, British Airways) to end deals with Iran and countries (i.e. Japan, South Korea) to stop importing oil from the Gulf State.
Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne said: “[We] cannot afford to take the risk to be banned from using the US Financial system.”
While a statement from ENI read: “We have no presence in Iran anymore and our trading contract will naturally expire in November.”
As the deadline fast approaches, it seems likely that more will do the same. Even attempts to save the Iranian Regime from the consequences, i.e. the EU’s Special purpose vehicle that proposes to skirt the sanctions by allowing payments for Iranian goods to be made in Euros rather than dollars, would not work in practice according to experts.
Currently, the International Monetary Fund estimates that Iran’s GDP will fall by 3.6% in 2019, despite forecasting a growth of 4% in April.
US National Security adviser John Bolton said: “I think the return of the sanctions has had a devastating effect on their economy and I think it’s going to get worse.”
This is what the US wants, as it’ll bring the Iranian Regime back to the negotiating table for a new nuclear deal, but it is also what the Iranian people want.
The Iranian people are the biggest victims of the Iranian Regime’s malign behaviour, dealing with a failing economy after years of the mullahs corruption, major environmental crises that the Regime has failed to do anything about, and a healthcare system that cannot cope with the conditions that are caused or exacerbated by poverty and pollution.
Since last December, the Iranian people have been out in the streets demanding regime change and the economic situation is not going to quell their protests. If the situation declines more, then protests will grow and the mullahs maybe toppled before the 40th anniversary of the Iranian Regime.