A recent study has revealed a significant shift in Iran’s internal migration patterns—from traditional rural-to-urban movement to predominantly city-to-city migration. Conducted by Rasoul Sadeghi, Associate Professor of Demography at the University of Tehran’s Faculty of Social Sciences, the research was published in the latest issue of Social Sciences Quarterly by Allameh Tabataba’i University.
A Nation on the Move
According to Sadeghi’s findings, over the past few decades, approximately one million people have migrated within Iran each year. This dynamic has paralleled broader demographic transformations, including declining birth and death rates and a changing age structure. Iran is now in its “demographic window”—a phase marked by a high proportion of working-age individuals, currently around 70% of the total population.
This demographic shift has contributed to increased internal migration, particularly toward urban centers and more developed central regions. The motivation behind this movement is largely economic and educational, especially among the youth.
From Villages to Cities—and Between Cities
Using census data from 2011 and 2016, the study highlights a dramatic increase in inter-urban migration. In the decade between 1976 and 1986, city-to-city migration accounted for just 40% of all internal migration. In recent years, that figure has surged to nearly 70%.
Meanwhile, the share of rural-to-urban migration has dropped sharply—from 56% to 20%—and rural-to-rural migration has declined from 12% to just 5% over the past four decades. Today, cities are the primary destinations for internal migrants, with 83% of migration flows directed toward urban areas and only 17% toward rural settlements.
Tehran and its neighboring provinces have experienced substantial net population growth due to migration. In contrast, less developed western and southeastern provinces have seen significant population losses.
One particularly notable trend is the outflow from Tehran to Alborz Province, reflecting the capital’s growing suburbanization and the increasing cost and pressure of life in metropolitan Tehran.
Gender, Age, and Motivation
The study also sheds light on the shifting demographics of migration itself. The proportion of women among internal migrants has risen from 46% in the 1981–1991 period to 49% between 2011 and 2016.
Young women aged 15 to 29 primarily migrate for educational opportunities, while men aged 30 to 32 cite employment as the main reason for relocation. Overall, for every 100 female migrants, there are 105 male migrants.
However, migration motivations vary significantly by gender. While men are more likely to move for economic reasons, women are more influenced by social, cultural, and family factors. Migration often represents a chance for women to escape structural and familial restrictions, including social control and gender discrimination.
The Broader Impact
The rise in inter-urban migration has had profound social, economic, and environmental consequences. Major cities now bear the brunt of population growth, leading to increased housing costs, traffic congestion, and heightened levels of air pollution.
With a large share of Iran’s 85 million citizens now living in urban areas, smaller towns and villages are increasingly depopulated. This imbalance has also contributed to the expansion of informal employment and a growing income gap between provinces.
The study emphasizes that regional inequalities are a key driver of migration and contribute to the country’s uneven development. As economic opportunities become increasingly concentrated in a few urban centers, the pressure on these cities continues to grow.
Looking Ahead
Based on data from 15 provinces, the study predicts that internal migration—particularly interprovincial migration—will continue to rise in the coming years. Key drivers include persistent regional disparities, a youthful and middle-aged population structure, rising educational attainment, high youth unemployment, and a lack of job opportunities in many areas.
Unless addressed through balanced regional development and improved infrastructure in underdeveloped provinces, this trend is likely to exacerbate existing social and economic divides.
