In July, Tehran’s housing market exhibited starkly different inflation rates depending on the source of the data. The Statistics Center of Iran reported a staggering 43% increase in housing prices compared to the same period last year, whereas the Central Bank of Iran claimed a much more modest 14% inflation rate.
According to a report published on the Central Bank’s website on Sunday, September 1, the average price per square meter of residential property in Tehran was 87.5 million tomans in July 2024. This figure represented a 14.3% decrease compared to July 2023, and a 2% increase from June 2024. In contrast, the Statistics Center’s data suggested a 43.1% year-over-year price hike for the same period.
The discrepancy between these reports highlights the ongoing volatility in Tehran’s housing market. Over the past few years, housing inflation has experienced significant fluctuations. Central Bank data indicate that housing inflation surged from below 20% in April 2021 to over 100% in May of last year. Since then, it has trended downward, dipping below 10% in June 2024 before rising again to over 14% in July.
The Iranian regime’s efforts to stabilize the housing market have fallen short of their ambitious goals. Upon taking office, Ebrahim Raisi’s administration promised to construct one million housing units annually to curb the crisis of soaring housing prices and rents. However, this promise has remained largely unfulfilled.
When Raisi assumed office, the average price per square meter of a house in Tehran was under 32 million tomans. Despite this relatively low baseline, the housing market has seen significant price increases since then.
On April 25, Mohammad Reza Rezaei Kochi, Chairman of the Construction Commission of the regime’s parliament, revealed that the ‘National Housing Movement’ plan had stalled, with progress reaching only 25%. He noted that only a “very small” portion of government housing projects had been completed and delivered, and these were mainly tied to the ‘National Housing Action’ project initiated by the previous administration.
The Central Bank’s data also show that the number of housing transactions in Tehran rose by 27% in July 2024 compared to the same month last year, totaling 3,559 units. However, this figure represents an 8% decrease in transactions from June 2024. For context, the Central Bank’s archives indicate that nearly 15,000 housing transactions were recorded in Tehran in June 2017, before the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions on Iran.
In addition to the fluctuations in housing prices, rents in Tehran have also sharply increased. According to the Central Bank, rent prices surged by 50% in July 2024 compared to the same month last year.
These conflicting reports and fluctuating statistics underscore the uncertainty and challenges facing Tehran’s housing market as it continues to grapple with inflationary pressures and the unfulfilled promises of government intervention.
