Satellite data shows Iranian crude oil stored at sea has surged to record levels as sanctions tighten and buyers retreat.
New satellite-based data reveals that Iran’s stock of crude oil stored at sea has surged dramatically this year, reflecting both shrinking markets for its sanctioned exports and growing pressure from global enforcement measures.
According to commodities and data analysis firm Kpler, the amount of Iranian crude held afloat increased from 5 million barrels in January to 35 million barrels by July. The firm now estimates that 40 million barrels are stored aboard tankers, primarily in Southeast Asia and off China’s coast.
When confronted with similar figures from Bloomberg and S&P Global Platts, Iranian regime Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad dismissed the reports, claiming, “we fundamentally have no oil that we are unable to sell.”
Satellite Tracking Exposes Hidden Trade Routes
Kpler’s calculations rely on tracking oil volumes leaving Iranian export terminals versus those unloaded at Chinese ports, where almost all Iranian crude ends up. Satellite imagery reveals that much of this oil is transferred at sea, particularly off Malaysia, to disguise its origin before arriving in China.
Official Chinese trade data records no imports from Iran, yet Malaysian export statistics show a suspicious mismatch: in 2024, Malaysia reported exporting 1.4 million barrels per day of oil to China, despite producing only 500,000 barrels per day domestically. This statistical gap is widely attributed to Iranian crude being transshipped offshore Malaysia before delivery to China’s Dongying region and other coastal hubs.
Other intelligence sources report even higher figures. Vortexa, another commodity tracking firm, estimates that Iran’s floating oil reserves now total 63 million barrels, much of it held on “dark fleet” tankers operating without proper tracking, insurance, or safety compliance.
Sanctions Bite as Buyers Retreat
Analysts believe the offshore build-up is a consequence of weakening demand from Iran regime’s remaining buyers. Many had already stockpiled oil in onshore facilities in anticipation of stricter U.S. and allied sanctions, leaving limited storage capacity for additional imports.
In June, Chinese “teapot” refiners boosted imports ahead of expected enforcement crackdowns, but their tanks are now at full capacity. As a result, Iran is being forced to store excess cargo offshore while offering steeper discounts to shift unsold volumes—further eroding the regime’s revenues.
Sanctions enforcement has become more effective partly because not only the ships but also their managers, owners, and service providers are now targeted. This adds significant logistical and financial strain on the regime’s oil operations.
Malaysia and International Response
In May, Malaysia’s Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry announced plans to step up action against fraudulent certificates of origin and illegal transshipments. However, legal limitations mean Malaysia cannot easily stop such operations in its Exclusive Economic Zone, and political will remains questionable.
Other nations have taken a more aggressive stance. Denmark, for example, has used health, safety, and insurance compliance violations to disrupt “dark fleet” operations. The concentration of old, poorly maintained, uninsured tankers—many loaded with Iranian crude—off Malaysia’s coast poses an environmental hazard that could trigger further intervention.
The continued build-up of Iranian regime oil at sea underscores the growing challenge for Tehran: even with elaborate sanction-evasion tactics, its shrinking pool of buyers and tightening enforcement are forcing it into costly, risky storage solutions that further drain its already strained economy.
