In 2021, Iran’s Statistics Center reported point-to-point inflation at 43.2%, with the dollar valued at approximately 25,600 tomans. During this period, the price of gold was 1,100,000 tomans per gram, and coins were priced at 11,366,000 tomans. The average housing price in Tehran stood at 30,970,000 tomans per square meter.
However, three years later, following the helicopter crash of the regime’s former president Ebrahim Raisi, which caused significant political turbulence, point-to-point inflation decreased to 31%, according to the claims of the Statistics Center.
Despite this reduction, the price of gold surged by 248%, the dollar increased by 136%, and the price of coins soared by 296%. The average housing price in Tehran escalated to 84,750,000 tomans per square meter, and the price of meat rose to an average of 618,755 tomans per kilogram, marking a 346% increase from 138,500 tomans.
Masoud Pezeshkian the regime’s new president, aware of the dire economic situation and endemic corruption within the ruling body, understands the challenges ahead. He recognizes that he will not be welcomed with open arms nor have many opportunities to address the country’s crippling economic crisis.
Point-to-Point Inflation: A Critical Indicator
Point-to-point inflation provides a more precise measure of price increases. In May 2024, the Statistics Center reported this inflation rate at 31.9%. For March and April 2024, the rates were 31% and 30.9%, respectively. In contrast, point-to-point inflation in 2021 reached 43.2%, and by March 2023, it had peaked at 58.6%.
In recent months, the dollar has quietly set new records, reaching 58,850 tomans on Tuesday, July 9. The historical peak of 67,500 tomans was unofficially recorded on April 13. At the time of Ebrahim Raisi’s inauguration, the dollar was valued at 25,630 tomans, and at his death, it had increased to 60,600 tomans.
Economic experts predict that controlling the 136% growth of the dollar will be a significant challenge for Pezeshkian’s government, exacerbated by the regime’s flawed economic and foreign policies, over which Pezeshkian has little control.
Market Trends and Price Increases
Recently, the prices of gold and coins have risen by approximately 3,400,000 tomans and 41,000,000 tomans, respectively. The 13th government assumed office when the price of 18-carat gold was 1,100,800 tomans per gram. By the end of May this year, it had surged to 3,830,000 tomans, marking a 248% increase.
The housing market in Tehran has also experienced significant inflation. The average price per square meter reached 85,910,000 tomans, providing only a useful metric for official reports and statistical comparisons. In May 2024, the average cost of buying a house in Tehran was 84,750,000 tomans per square meter, compared to 30,970,000 tomans in August 2021. Consequently, purchasing a 100-square-meter house in Tehran now requires an average of 8.6B tomans.
The price of lamb meat, which averaged 138,500 tomans per kilogram at the beginning of 2021, climbed to 618,755 tomans by May 2024. According to the Statistics Center’s official report, by the end of June, the price had further increased to 653,000 tomans.
Chicken prices also saw a substantial rise, from 30,314 tomans per kilogram to 82,698 tomans, reflecting a 173% growth. By the end of June 2024, the average price was 83,870 tomans per kilogram.
Additionally, the price of Iranian rice, which was around 118,450 tomans at the beginning of the 14th government, increased from 38,647 tomans in August 2021 to 116,300 tomans per kilogram in May 2024, representing a 200% increase over three and a half years.
Poverty and Economic Hardship
According to regime media, 30% of Iranians live below the poverty line. This persistent poverty rate is accompanied by three troubling trends.
- First, the gap between those below the poverty line and the line itself has widened.
- Second, the duration of households remaining below the poverty line has increased, indicating reduced mobility out of poverty.
- Third, the economic distance between those above the poverty line and the poverty threshold has decreased, meaning that even the non-poor are becoming poorer.
Given the current macroeconomic conditions, there seems to be little improvement in household well-being in 2024. The economic challenges facing Iran, compounded by internal corruption and flawed policies, continue to weigh heavily on its population.
