On May 27, Iran’s state-run newspaper Hamdeli published a report evaluating the performance of the regime’s demised president Ebrahim Raisi.
The report featured insights from Davoud Manzoor, the head of the Program and Budget Organization, highlighting significant increases in oil and tax revenues under Raisi’s administration.
Despite these increases, the report raised a critical question: why haven’t these gains translated into improved welfare for the people?
Hamdeli noted that under the 13th government, led by Raisi, the country saw an additional $30 billion in oil revenues in 2022 and 2023.
Additionally, there was a staggering 156% growth in tax revenues during the same period. However, these financial gains occurred alongside severe inflation rates of 45.8% and 41%, resulting in a cumulative inflation rate of 106%.
The report highlighted a troubling disconnect: while government income soared, the purchasing power of employees, retirees, and workers plummeted.
In his defense, Manzoor blamed the previous government for these economic woes, a common tactic within the regime. Hamdeli critically assessed this narrative, suggesting that paying off the previous government’s debts should not overshadow the current administration’s accountability.
To illustrate the insignificance of this debt repayment in the broader economic context, Hamdeli cited Manzoor’s figures: 320 trillion tomans (about $6.4 billion at an exchange rate of 50,000 tomans per dollar) in principal and interest from the previous government’s bonds.
This amount is nearly equivalent to the revenue from oil sales to South Korea under the previous administration. Even excluding this released currency, the total $6.4 billion is less than half of the annual increase in oil income, casting doubt on Manzoor’s attempts to attribute the current crisis to past governance.
The newspaper further delved into the regime’s budget deficit. According to research centers, including the Parliament Research Center, the current year’s budget deficit is projected to be higher than ever.
Hamidreza Ghasemi, a development planning researcher, pointed out that there has been a systematic overestimation of revenues and underestimation of expenses. He specifically mentioned an underestimation of 230 trillion tomans for bread and subsistence subsidies.
This discrepancy contributes to a significant budget deficit, which paradoxically exacerbates poverty instead of alleviating it, as the intended anti-poverty subsidies fail to offset the inflation and inefficiency they generate.
Ghasemi criticized the 2024 budget for lacking specific goals to alleviate deprivation. He argued that the budget lacks a long-term strategy and primarily benefits government supporters rather than addressing developmental needs.
Without substantial procedural changes, he saw little hope for reform. He emphasized the importance of public awareness regarding their rights and the indirect costs imposed on them through inflation and inefficiencies.
In a related report, the state-run Mehr news agency provided detailed statistics on the government’s increasing tax revenues. In 2023, tax revenues reached a total of 806 trillion tomans, marking a 71% increase from the previous year and a 108% increase compared to the approved budget.
Direct taxes, including those on legal entities, income, and wealth, comprised 60% of the total tax revenue, amounting to over 484 trillion tomans.
Indirect taxes on goods and services accounted for the remaining 40%, with a significant 81% growth from the previous year and a 106% increase over the approved budget.
Mehr’s report also broke down the tax contributions from various sectors. Business taxes represented 6% of the total collection, amounting to approximately 51 trillion tomans, while taxes from private and public sector employees constituted 10% of the total, about 80 trillion tomans.
In summary, while the Iranian regime under Raisi has reported substantial increases in oil and tax revenues, these financial gains have not translated into improved living standards for the populace.
Instead, rising inflation and budget mismanagement have led to decreased purchasing power and exacerbated poverty.
Critics argue that without significant procedural and strategic reforms, these economic policies will continue to fail in addressing the fundamental issues facing the country.
