Recently, the toman, Iran’s currency, fell against the dollar by more than 37 percent compared to its level in early 2018.
Threatening to withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal, US President Trump has demanded modifications to the current agreement. Withdrawal would mean that the economic sanctions that were lifted to benefit Iran’s economy will be back in place. This may cause further damage to Iran’s currency, increasing the prices of goods and services, leaving the majority of the Iranian population unable to to afford basic necessities.
In an attempt to control the dollar exchange rate the Iranian regime has arrested many currency traders and enforced the official dollar price. Still, these measures have failed to check the falling currency. Another uprising, like the one that occurred at the turn of the year seems imminent — possibly even a huge revolution against the Iranian regime. In order to avoid this, Iran may need to comply with Trump’s conditions. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, who ran as a reformist, might reluctantly accept US terms and conditions.
Khamenei, and his alliance of hardliners and fundamentalists, oppose any concessions. They appear reluctant to diminish Iran’s capability to produce a nuclear bomb in the future. They seem to believe that they must not give up the expansions that they achieved during the revolution – expansions which they consider part of their loyalty to what they call the Imam’s Line.
The Revolutionary Guards is also said to control a large percentage of Iran’s financial revenues, particularly oil and gas revenues. The Revolutionary Guards may want to fight to defend their earnings.
The future of the theocratic sate can be predicted by the price of ‘toman’, which is now is the standard. Neither the Supreme Leader nor the Revolutionary Guards can overcome hunger, poverty, or a collapsed service infrastructure.
Survival of the Islamic Republic of Iran depends on its abandoning its expansionist project and expenditures on wars outside its borders, otherwise its downfall is foreseeable.