The Iranian regime has escalated executions and warmongering in an irrational manner. In Iran, we witness the execution of various political prisoners, insurgents arrested at different times, and other detainees almost every day, as reported by state media.
Abroad, the regime has launched rockets and drones at commercial ships and American bases in the Middle East through its proxies. Pursuing such a policy is akin to walking on the edge of a sharp sword.
The execution of protesters and political prisoners may exacerbate the volatile situation within the country, potentially leading to an uprising. Warmongering abroad will also draw attention to the regime’s terrorism, increasing the likelihood of a military attack.
Given these issues, the question arises: why does the regime intensify executions while simultaneously inciting regional and international conflicts? Has its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, lost decision-making power, succumbing to an incurable insanity that often afflicts dictators in their end, or is there another motive behind his actions?
The correct answer lies in the urgency and difficulty that Khamenei and his government leaders face. They perceive the looming threat of an uprising on the horizon of Iran’s explosive situation.
They hear the resounding cries of the people. For them, the crisis of potential overthrow is more severe than other challenges. To evade the consequences, they have resorted to exporting the crisis beyond Iran’s borders. In other words, they have chosen a bad fate to sidestep a worse one.
How long can they continue exporting this crisis? Only as long as the risk of a serious foreign war with a superpower or an international coalition does not materialize. Undoubtedly, this is a risky gamble; a gamble they engage in out of desperation and urgency.
So far, neither the increase in executions nor repression has managed to intimidate Iran’s explosive society, nor has warmongering outside Iran’s borders alleviated the regime’s pain caused by malign behavior and repression. The society’s hatred and disgust towards executions have intensified opposition against the government.
These executions have led to protests and uprisings inside and outside prisons. The consequences of warmongering in the region increasingly come back to haunt the primary instigator and crisis-maker.
Regarding the regime’s increasing executions, the state-run website Didban Iran stated:
“It is not wrong to say that the first execution after the protests of 2022 shocked everyone. The same day, when a mother screamed in the street and called for Mohsen, it touched the hearts of every human being. Mohsen Shekari was the first protester last year who was sentenced to death for blocking Sattar Khan Street. The society also reacted strongly to the execution of Mohammad Ghabadlou and did not accept it. Some analysts view these recent executions as an attempt to intimidate protesters. However, others believe that these executions fuel social anger, potentially making protests more intense and widespread.”
Kambiz Nowruzi, a lawyer, shared his insights with the Didban Iran website regarding the impact and cause of the society’s strong reaction to the executions after last year’s protests:
“It is almost clear that these executions have bred a sense of distrust and lawlessness in society, intensifying over time. In this case, society and public opinion reject such behavior, leading to an increasing gap between power and society. Additionally, it can foster hatred in society. Beyond the families of the convicts, society may view these actions with malice, which is not in anyone’s interest.”
