The 2022 uprising, with its profound political and social ramifications within the Iranian regime and society, has reshaped the perception of previous uprisings, particularly the one in November 2019. Why?
The strategic impact of the 2022 uprising is ongoing; its effects persist within the Mullahs’ regime. Ironically, the regime’s recent saber-rattling in Gaza can be attributed to the strategic consequences of the 2022 uprising, which have foretold the inevitable downfall of this regime. The outcome of the 2022 uprising determines the final alignment between the vast majority of Iranian society and the rule of the Mullahs.
The reassessment of the November 2019 uprising should be approached from this perspective, as its outcomes and effects contributed to the higher trajectory of the 2022 uprising in determining the ultimate fate of the Iranian regime.
Let us examine the characteristics of that tumultuous and electrifying uprising, whose political and social repercussions paved the way for the strategic impact of the 2022 uprising.
Four years ago, a volcanic surge of anger against the regime erupted suddenly on November 15, triggered by the exorbitant price of gasoline, engulfing over 190 cities in Iran.
The wave of social discontent, which had been brewing beneath the surface of Iranian cities for decades, collided with the dictatorial lineage of the Velayat-e Faqih in a single day.
Suddenly, lightning struck the bastions of repression, looting, and the corrupt institutions that supported and sustained the Mullahs’ dictatorship. The lightning was youthful and dynamic, accelerating and expanding.
It multiplied so rapidly and in such numbers that, within two days, that the entire security forces of the regime were involved in the repression of the protesters and the regime feared a fast collapse.
The panic that brought the prospect of overthrow to the Supreme Leader’s doorstep engulfed the entire structure and officials of the system. The defining characteristic of this lightning strike was the organized, purposeful, and evolved from the uprisings of 2009 and 2017.
Let’s delve into the characteristics of the November 2019 uprising in the following areas:
- The root causes of the uprising’s eruption, marked by its explosive and tumultuous nature, signaled two simultaneous corruptions within the regime: political repression and economic plunder.
- With this uprising, a chapter concluded, setting the stage for the next major upheaval. The ongoing struggle between the people and the regime, stemming from the outcomes of that uprising, reached its zenith in the September2022 uprising.
- The popular legitimacy of the November 2019 uprising shook the foundations of the Mullahs’ rule, causing internal factionalism and gang conflicts. Subsequently, Khamenei was compelled to eradicate the so-called reformist faction entirely from the upper echelons and body of the regime. The repercussions of this purge shattered Khamenei’s position within the system, and its effects are still reverberating.
- The November 2019 uprising propelled the young generation to the forefront of the fight for freedom, poised to leap towards the future. The potential of this dynamic, simmering beneath the surface of Iranian society, culminated in the nationwide protests of 2022 and continues to resonate.
- The scale of crimes under Khamenei’s security forces during the November 2019 uprising, resulting in 1,500 deaths, galvanized human rights associations globally against the Mullahs’ regime. The attention garnered by the cases of those massacred in the summer of 1988 extended the justice movement throughout Iran.
- Waves of political prisoners and the increasing number of prisoners inundated the regime. With each uprising, thousands of prisoners were added to the crisis of prisons and detainees within the regime. Currently, the regime grapples with a crisis involving several generations of men and women who are political prisoners.
- The strategic impact of the November 2019 uprising led to the formation of a political-social front of the Iranian people against the regime. The result of this coalition: a nation that seeks the overthrow of the regime.
- Over the past four years, the regime continues to grapple with the consequences of its atrocities and killings, unable to cleanse its hands of the blood of the 1,500 fallen roses for freedom in the November 2019 uprising. This blood still courses through the veins of Iranian society, keeping the people poised for the right moment to rise again and overthrow the regime.
The achievements outlined above have become the backbone of the recent 2022 uprising—an uprising that has matured Iranian society beyond the events of November 2019 into a coalition of several million freedom-seeking Iranians.
