Well, the US needs to find a comprehensive strategy to fracture the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as embrace the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI).
The Trump administration has welcomed the Resistance so far, but this effort would be more successful if Trump explicitly recognised them by mentioning their name and supplying them with technological tools, i.e. free internet access and secure messaging applications, that would stop the Regime from attacking the Iranian people. This would accelerate regime change by Iranians by allowing protestors to communicate and take action before the IRGC cracked down on them.
Importantly, Tanter cautions, there’s no need to arm the NCRI. In fact, he called it “ill-advised” because it would make the NCRI look like an American weapon to attack the Regime, as opposed to “the genuine representatives of the Iranian people”.
Unlike Ronald Regan’s conflict with Iran over oil tankers in the 1980s, Trump is not just protecting oil interests but trying to stop Iran from gaining nuclear weapons, supporting terrorists, and creating havoc in the Middle East. By increasing sanctions pressure on Iran without actually starting a military war, Trump is devastating the Iranian economy and forcing Iran to reallocate resources from its military.
The Iranian Rial has dropped in value considerably during the tankers wars, with Iranian police cracking down on foreign-exchange offices, the central bank trying to introduce new measures to encourage bank deposits, and the Regime even artificially fixed the exchange rate. All the while, the basics are getting more expensive and the Iranian people more distraught.
Tanter said that there are three key lessons the US should heed in this conflict:
- It’s critical that an opposition group, like the NCRI, reinforce a maximum pressure strategy
- Initial restraint can lead to the de-escalation of a conflict, i.e. Trump deciding to launch a cyber attack on Iran, as opposed to an airstrike, in response to the downing of an American drone in June
- Trump should take a different approach toward Iran than Reagan because circumstances have changed
Iran is ripe for revolution, as long as the people hold the reigns.