The Iranian government has set all its power to have the upper hand in the negotiations around the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). What they are expecting despite their arrogant position is just the revival of the 2015 JCPOA and receiving all the scores provided by the worst appeasement policy in that time by the world powers, analysts believe.
But even for the most optimistic people in the government it was clear that something like this would not happen again, unless the European countries and the US government would accept that this regime become a nuclear power, gaining nuclear bombs and receiving the hegemony in the Middle East on a golden tray.
The possibility of such a repetition in a policy by the West seems impossible and illogical.
- The regime is sitting at the negotiating table in desperation and under the heavy pressure of Trump-era sanctions and has not the previous position in the balance of power and its power of blackmail.
- The economic blows and the isolation of the regime has cut off its hand from the eolian money by auctioning the oil, the property and capital of the Iranian people.
- In addition to previous Security Council resolutions against the regime that were halted by the 2015 JCPOA, the West has a wider hand in gaining concessions from the regime in the wake of the Trump-era sanctions process.
- The blatant terrorist action against the Iranian opposition in its annual gathering in Villepinte, north of Paris on European soil and a threat that could left thousands of victims in Europe, had also its effects on the political table. After a long process of interrogation and trial and the issuance of a harsh sentence by the Antwerp court against the regime’s terrorist network in Europe and the sentencing of a regime terrorist diplomat to severe punishment, the regime’s hand is more closed for maximalist demands.
- And most importantly, the very serious shift in the balance of power in Iran due to the heroic protests of the people against the regime during the uprisings of 2017 and 2018 and the bloody November of 2019 has made the Western political views more realistic on the shaky position of the regime.
Thus, the European countries, which in Trump’s time were not sympathetic to the policy of ‘maximum pressure’, in this round of negotiations refused to accept the maximalist demands of the mullahs.
The announcement of a list of new EU sanctions against the Revolutionary Guards involved in the November 2019 protester massacre can be considered, apart from its inherent importance, as a beacon against the regime
And the explosion on the Natanz site also emptied the hand of Iran’s government for its nuclear ransom in the negotiations.
As Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, complained in an interview with the State TV Channel One, on April 15:
“The Natanz incident is not something that can be easily overlooked. Our expectation from the other countries on the JCPOA table was that they would condemn this incident, a very serious and right expectation, except for Russia and China, the rest of the JCPOA members, in fact, the three European countries not only did not do this at a right way, but they also even added items to their list around of sanctions.”
Then he showed the regime’s extreme weak position as he added: “We also do not have the opportunity for erosive negotiations. We do not want erosive negotiations at all. We must reach a conclusion faster, and we must see in practice that there is a reasonable momentum to reach an agreement, otherwise, we see no reason to continue negotiations.”
This weak position of the regime with the golden card of its ‘Uranium enrichment’, or better said the nuclear bomb, will not have the regime’s desired outcome in return. And that at a time when the regime because of the heavy sanctions is no longer able to support its proxy forces in the Middle East and playing with a card this time on the negotiating table is far from a real powerful lever and attacks like the latest against the airport of Erbil will not work anymore.
Furthermore, such a weakness will result in the dispersion of the regime’s forces and the blunting of its repression against the people that could lead to an uprising.