State-directed crises — from inflation and manipulated statistics to mass executions — are systematically used to crush hope and neutralize dissent, critics and even some officials say.
For many Iranians, daily life is dominated by two inseparable realities: a deepening economic crisis and the ever-present threat of execution. What appears, to critics, as chaotic mismanagement instead follows a deliberate pattern. Media analysts, economists and some serving officials argue that these crises are not accidental failures but instruments of state policy — designed, coordinated and deployed by the regime’s decision-making apparatus to blunt social energy, redistribute burdens and silence political unrest.
Engineered hardship, not accidental collapse
For years, a chorus of state-run media, official experts, parliamentarians and even government ministers have voiced alarm about rising poverty and the impossibility of household budgets. Yet, despite repeated warnings, living standards continue to erode. Prices for basic goods are raised repeatedly and often suddenly, critics say, in ways that benefit political and financial insiders while inflicting predictable pain on low- and middle-income Iranians.
Those patterns have led many independent observers to conclude that the crisis is not merely the byproduct of economic mismanagement but the outcome of intentional policy choices. In this view, fiscal shortfalls are patched in ways that shift the burden onto ordinary people — through inflation, currency manipulation and abrupt price hikes — while the formal debate about “who is to blame” serves as stagecraft to obscure the real decision-makers.
Lies, conflicting statistics and the politics of uncertainty
The manipulation of data is a key tool in this system. Recent reporting highlighted glaring contradictions in official poverty figures: depending on which state source one consults, the monthly “urban poverty line” for a four-person household in 2023 ranged from roughly 8 million to over 20 million Iranian tomans. Such wildly divergent numbers eliminate the possibility of realistic planning and provide political cover for policies that transfer economic pain onto the most vulnerable.
Analysts argue these discrepancies are not accidental. Rather, opaque and inconsistent statistics function as a form of political control: they prevent independent assessment of policy outcomes, obscure who actually benefits from fiscal decisions, and make it easier for officials to claim that measures are unavoidable.
Even regime economists acknowledge political intent
That interpretation has gained traction after public comments by establishment figures. On November 6, 2025, the state-affiliated daily Arman-e Melli cited regime economist Hussein Raghfar arguing that the disorder in the economy must ultimately be traced to political decision-making. Raghfar suggested that resolving inflation requires a level of political will that is currently absent.
Other outlets carried similar exposés. Jahan-e Sanat reported that the government’s short-term focus on reducing its budget deficit often translates into policies that offload costs onto low- and middle-income households — a candid assessment that, implicitly or explicitly, acknowledges the political calculus behind austerity choices.
Even members of the ruling establishment have admitted to the mechanisms at work: Regime president Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged that printing money to cover budget shortfalls produces inflationary pressure borne by ordinary citizens.
The other weapon: executions as political theatre
Economic strangulation is accompanied by another instrument of control: the heavy and highly publicized use of capital punishment. Critics describe executions as a form of political signaling — a way to intimidate, to foreclose dissent and to present the appearance of order while broader social grievances fester. In this account, both economic pressure and punitive criminal justice are coordinated components of a larger strategy to neutralize opposition and sap public morale.
A single remedy, say opponents: popular determination
Given the scale and coordination of these measures, opponents argue that remedies within the system are unlikely to succeed. The analysis presented by dissidents and many independent commentators concludes that only a profound political transformation can break the cycle of engineered crises and systemic repression. They call for sustained civic determination — especially among the country’s youth and urban populations — as the only realistic path to dismantle the structures that perpetuate artificial scarcity, political violence and social despair.
