Hariri made it clear that is not going back to Beirut soon. He said he fears for his life in Lebanon. Recent history shows that talk of an assassination attempt cannot be ignored.

However, this is not the only factor that led to Hariri’s resignation.

It is feared that Lebanon has entered a confrontation, and has no way of turning back. Diana Moukalled, veteran journalist and freelance documentary producer, says in her article for Arab News, “The president and speaker said the situation required no reaction, but rather a lot of thinking about the consequences of taking a view — especially since the Lebanese lira, the only indicator that the country is capable of coping in a crisis such as this, is under some pressure.”

She says that Hariri’s resignation means that the “caretaker government”, whose term is expected to be extended, will remain without a prime minister, triggering some constitutional and political questions. If Hariri resigned in an attempt to confront the Iranian power bloc with a vacuum, he may have escalated the situation. Sunni Cabinet ministers might abstain from their duties, which would further complicate the situation.

This makes the president’s position difficult, as he is a partner in the executive. In appointing a new prime minister, if someone less representative of the Sunni community were chosen, it would be a setback. The cabinet would be placed in a tenuous position, and it would be arduous for ministers to retain their credibility in Parliament.

According to Moukalled, jokes and rumors are already circulating about who is going to replace Hariri. She cites a message on Whatsapp, that suggested that former Prime Minister Najib Mikati “has sent his suit to the dry cleaners” in preparation.

It doesn’t seem feasible that any Sunni politician would care to fill the position at this time, because by doing so they would put themselves in a confrontation position with Saudi Arabia and the Arab coalition against Iran. Moukalled writes that this means “an extension of the caretaker government for an indefinite period, and an impasse in the prime ministerial role.”

She believes that Tehran and its local allies have begun to look for an exit strategy, and that now the confrontation is out in the open. She says, “Saudi Arabia appears to feel that the official position of Lebanon in this confrontation is not in its interests. That is why it has chosen Lebanon as the platform for a direct and different kind of confrontation with Tehran.”