The extent and depth of these two uprisings in the provinces which threaten the interests of the Iranian regime and seek the exclusion of the regime’s local mercenaries have led to the disintegration of what the Iranian regime has expected after a long investment in both countries. The regime tries to cover up the undeniable reality, to understand these “strange events” and call it “difficult and complicated”, “Strange things happened on the street that made it difficult to analyze and issue a ruling.” (State-run Javan daily, 28 October 2019)
The regime’s fears are so tangible and so pervasive that millions of people, especially Shiites in Iraq, have revealed that their experts are incapable of analyzing the events and are forced to make confusion interviews with the Javan newspaper: “The six provinces where the demonstrations are taking place are Shiite provinces.”
“The leaders who made the statement and raised the flag of anti-corruption are those who came out of this structure and stand against structural reform in Iraq.”
The reality of the great uprising in Iraq and Lebanon, however, has been so overwhelming that Iran’s regime and other totalitarian states must either admit this “bad reality” from the point of view of a dictator or be forced to lie about it and confess: “This situation we see is the product of the actions of the hands that sought to bitter the resistance front’s victories. So, they made a scene that, in my opinion, doesn’t have that depth.” (Javan daily)
One of the harsh realities of the Lebanese uprising is its national scope and the depth of its political, social and economic demands. This fact has trapped the mullahs in a confusing deadlock. Due to the national and prominent role of the Lebanese Army, the mullahs’ regime cannot use its local mercenaries to crush the Lebanese people as their snipers did in Iraq.
This fact is stated by the regime’s Javan journalist: “All the tribes of Lebanon were present at these gatherings.” And the Iranian regime expert is forced to confess: “The number of Christians participating in these gatherings has not been much difference between Christians and Shiites, and in some cases, the Shiites have been even larger. So, the issue in Lebanon is a social issue.”
The main fear, however, in Tehran is about what the uprisings in Baghdad and Beirut could set up. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had warned of such a vision many years ago: “If we do not fight in Syria and the strategic depth of the Islamic Republic, we must fight in Tehran, Mashhad and our other cities.”
This strategic reality is being swept away by Iraqis and Lebanese these days and the picture is clear. Every single day that the two uprisings continue, the volume of fear of the Iranian regime is intensifying: “It seems like Iraq and Lebanon, they have plans for Iran … we should not be optimistic. We should be very vigilant.”
And while the regime knows better than anyone what they did to the Iranian people with the economic, political, and social corruption, they warn of their consequences: “The livelihood of the people is an area that if neglected would bring us all down… The density of corruption and unhappiness suddenly reach a point where it cannot be controlled. ” (Javan daily)
Finally, the report points to the social media and its effect in the uprisings of Iraq and Lebanon: “In the Arab Spring, it was the social networks that led the street. The street, which listened to social media, was able to overthrow a government … it had to be aware of the media’s direction. Online media is not just a bridge between the streets.” (Javan daily) They are now the basis for the continuation of the uprisings in Iraq and Lebanon, and the special condition of the media and their virtual networks that provide a new perspective in both the region and the broader Middle East. The spread of this perspective to Iran as the region’s political geography changes is undeniable.