The problem is that the mullahs won’t do that. The Regime’s system is built on the export of their revolution and they can only export that through destabilising other states and taking power via force.
Thus, a new chapter in the conflict between the US and Iran begins, which will mainly involve political, diplomatic and economic confrontation, and while there may be some military power, this is not a full-scale war.
US sanctions targeting Iran’s oil and banking sectors came into force on November 4 and experts agree that, despite Iran’s attempts to evade the sanctions, this will cut deep. Trump’s objective is to force the Regime into choosing between its “destructive behaviour” and its economic health, with the eventual aim that the mullahs will return to the negotiating table for a new deal that covers all of its malign behaviours.
Of course, the Regime is not yet willing to admit that its behaviour is the problem. Instead, they have come out to denounce the US – even paying/forcing protesters to chant “Death to America” on the anniversary of the 1979 hostage taking in Tehran – and are still set on evading the US sanctions, even though that seems impossible.
The Iranian economy didn’t start to fail when US sanctions first came into force in August or when Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in May; instead, it was dangerously wounded from years of corruption and mismanagement from the mullahs. US sanctions just emphasised the weakness of the Iranian economy.
Now, the Iranian people are coming out in full force to protest the Regime and its economic failings – rising inflation, high unemployment, a falling rial – and the. The regime is turning on protesters with violence and arrests.
Ghassan Charbel, the Editor-in-Chief of London-based Al Sharq al-Awsat newspaper, wrote: “Iran is betting on time. It may be betting on its ability to wait for the end of Trump’s term.
It is also counting on European voices that believe that sanctions are affecting the people, and not this type of regime… and that the reformist movement in Iran will be the first victim of any new sanctions that the regime will consider as a blockade on the country and not against it.”
However, the Regime cannot wait another two years and they will fail to convince Europe to support them. This is the end of the Regime.