New data show poverty has reached its highest level in over a decade, with more than one-third of Iran’s population unable to meet basic needs
The spokesperson for the Iranian regime announced that the monthly poverty line for each individual in the Persian year 1403 (March 2024–March 2025) has surpassed six million tomans, marking a steep increase of nearly 2.5 million tomans compared to the previous year.
On October 21, regime spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani stated that “the poverty line for 1403, based on economic and regional indicators, is estimated at 6,128,739 tomans per person.”
In 1402, the official poverty line was about 3.8 million tomans per month, reflecting an entrenched 30 percent poverty rate. According to Donya-e-Eqtesad, a state-run economic daily, the new figure suggests that in 1403 the rate has surged to around 36 percent—the highest level recorded since the early 2010s.
This means that over one-third of the population can no longer afford even the minimum caloric intake required for basic survival.
Chronic Inflation and Declining Growth
The regime’s Statistical Center reported 3.1 percent economic growth and 37.1 percent point-to-point inflation last year. Economists attribute the growing poverty crisis to persistent inflation—especially in food and housing—and to the regime’s inability to generate sustainable growth.
Regime spokesperson Mohajerani acknowledged that “we explicitly know inflation is high,” blaming “imposed sanctions” for much of the pressure. Yet, her remarks sidestepped the regime’s decades-long economic mismanagement, widespread corruption, and policies that have deepened inequality and stifled production.
Despite official claims of combating inflation through cash handouts and digital ration cards, analysts emphasize that such temporary relief measures fail to address structural problems. Chronic budget deficits, a collapsing energy sector, and the regime’s reliance on the Central Bank to finance its debt continue to fuel inflationary pressure.
From Sanctions to Systemic Mismanagement
Donya-e-Eqtesad noted that in 2016 and 2017—before the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal—the poverty rate was below 20 percent. Although poverty did not dramatically decline, the gap between the poor and the poverty line narrowed, suggesting that economic stability briefly improved living conditions.
That progress reversed sharply when the regime’s confrontational policies reignited sanctions and triggered a currency collapse. By 2019, the poverty rate had soared above 30 percent, driven by skyrocketing prices, shrinking real wages, and the collapse of the rial.
Experts argue that several factors have accelerated the crisis: sustained high inflation, sluggish growth, ineffective welfare policies, and recurrent political and financial shocks.
Temporary Remedies in a Broken Economy
Analysts warn that while social support programs are essential, they cannot compensate for the absence of macroeconomic stability.
“After more than six years of inflation consistently above 30 percent and minimal growth, Iran’s economy has lost its resilience,” one economist noted. “As long as political uncertainty and foreign policy instability persist, welfare programs will remain nothing more than temporary painkillers.”
Beyond sanctions, the regime’s chronic energy shortages, mounting fiscal deficits, and monetary expansion to cover those deficits have further eroded productive capacity. Repeated currency devaluations and capital flight have also hindered investment, keeping Iran’s economic growth weak and volatile.
The regime’s own data reveal a stark reality: poverty is not merely a byproduct of sanctions but the direct consequence of years of corruption, mismanagement, and prioritization of political survival over economic reform.
As Iran’s population faces record-breaking poverty and inflation, the regime continues to rely on superficial announcements and populist subsidies—measures that may calm discontent temporarily but cannot conceal the deepening social and economic collapse.
