The social uprisings that took place in late July have dominated Iranian society in a domino effect and created new conditions for the government, the people, and the subversive forces. With a flashback to the social conditions before the Khuzestan uprising, we can examine the formation of uprisings.
The nationwide boycott of the regime’s sham elections in June 2021 was a major blow to the religious tyranny by the Iranian people. In what can be described as an informal referendum on the regime, the people, beyond the negative vote for the ousted President of the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, rejected and boycotted the entire system formed on the foundation of Velayat-e-Faqih (supreme religious rule). Less than a month later, social upheavals began and formed a new era.
This period is defined by the emergence of protest movements. The Khuzestan uprising was the first quake. The eruption of this fiery magma caused other aftershocks in different parts of Iran that are still going on.
Characteristics of recent uprisings
Some characteristics for this series of uprisings can be enumerated:
- They can expand.
- They are continuous.
- They are affecting each other in a chain reaction.
- They support each other.
- Their slogans are political, and their main target is the principle of Velayat-e-Faqih and the head of the regime.
- They are not afraid of repression and arrest.
- Despite climatic dispersion, they pursue the same goal.
- They stimulate the solidarity of the people and have a social base.
- Their geographical extent and continuity surprise and disperses the repressive force of the regime, and of course make them tired, worn out, and desperate.
With these descriptions, we can say that Iran is exposed to a revolution.
The generation that experienced the Revolution of 1979 knows that these lava flows and earthquakes are the preludes to a volcano.
People outstrip the regime’s factions
The state-run newspaper Arman on August 2, 2021, while acknowledging the recent uprisings and their aftermath, wrote:
“The passing of social groups through political currents [meaning ruling factions] has led to the emergence of the demands of social groups in a decentralized and pluralistic way; Gatherings that do not have a definite beginning and end and their central demand is not clear. However, they are formed under different pretexts.”
“What is happening in society today is the prelude to the formation of a social movement,” the newspaper admits in an interview with a government sociologist named Taghi Azad Armaki.
Erosion of repressive forces
What we have said about the characteristics of the recent social uprisings has been confirmed in this conversation. The state sociologist, in part of his speech, refers to the exhaustion of the repressive forces in the face of the insurgents. This exhaustion will increase the further we go.
“Due to the multiplicity of social groups and their demands, we are faced with a huge hidden social force that can emerge in a decentralized and pluralistic manner. In such a situation, all security, political, and law enforcement forces must be vigilant and present on the scene. However, only part of the police should be on the scene and the rest should be resting.
The continuation of such a situation makes the law enforcement and political forces of the government tired. Different issues should be turned into one or two issues. However, in the current situation, we are facing many problems and crises. For this reason, all law enforcement and political forces have come to work and as a result, they are getting tired.”
“Validation” of an executioner
Khamenei is holding a ceremony to “enforce” Ebrahim Raisi as cities are erupting against the regime. The regime’s decision to consolidate the power in the favor of the supreme leader’s faction is now showing its consequences. This crisis is so uncontrollable that even a government sociologist cannot hide it.
“This situation will exist at the beginning of Mr. Raisis’s government, and we will face rallies in the future as well.”
These uprisings have questioned the existence of the regime so that they are wishing that it had an economic characteristic and could be analyzed under the guess of civil movements, or that its demands could be postponed through negotiations.
“We are at a strange historical juncture. For this reason, we must try to provoke civil protests and those should lead the rallies, to be able to talk to them and postpone social demands.”
But opportunity and time for the regime’s desires and regrets are over. The rage of the society and its explosive state indicates the end of the regime’s era and the beginning of a new era. An era with uprisings of the Iranian people and deterioration and destruction of this religious tyranny.