Even its suppressive security forces, like the Basij and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), are trying to distance themselves from the regime, at a time when the regime has also lost much control in Iraq. Add this to the Iranian people’s uprising, where they chant anti-regime slogans and you can see that the regime is on shaky ground.
The regime’s isolation began with the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018 and the reimposing of sanctions that cut off Iran’s oil and petrochemical revenue. In the past year, it’s become considerably worse.
In February 2019, the European signatories to the JCPOA condemned Iran for its breach of the UN Security Council resolution 2231 by the testing of a ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear weapons, and urged the regime to end its “unacceptable behavior”.
In July, the US Treasury designated Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif and the regime failed to comply with international standards against money-laundering and terrorist financing, which could have given it some sanctions relief. (Despite several warnings, the regime still failed to meet those standards.)
In December, the European Parliament passed a resolution supporting the Iranian people’s protests and condemned the regime’s violent crackdown.
In January, the United States Congress did the same, while the regime announced that it would stop abiding by the nuclear deal. The announcement led the European signatories to trigger the agreement’s dispute resolution mechanism, which could mean UN sanctions being reimposed on Iran.
Loss of Influence
The regime also lost a lot of influence over the last 12 months, with probably the most important blow being the assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mehdi al-Muhandis, head of the Iranian regime’s proxy forces in Iraq, in a drone strike by the US on January 3.
- The Iraqi uprising against Iranian interference in their country, which began in October and was revived in January
- The blacklisting of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization,” including its Qud’s force and all its commanders by the US
- The expulsion or arrest of Iran’s terrorist diplomats in Albania, the US, and Germany for their role in plotting terrorist activities against MEK/PMOI
- Loss of money to support proxy groups
- The Iranian people’s ongoing protests against the regime
The overthrow of the regime is certain and imminent. The Iranian people do not want the mullahs in power. They want to free themselves from the regime and will accept nothing less than freedom.
Things have changed dramatically in Iran over the past year, with people taking to the streets at every opportunity to chant slogans like “Khamenei is a murderer, his rule is null and void”, despite the heavy presence of the security forces. The international community must stop appeasing the mullahs and instead side with the Iranian people.